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Grain Market Comment - Trim The Fat

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Tuesday, March 20. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
Monday started with new high prices for the month on the Sunday night overnight trade but long-held positions fat with profits started to trim some of their long positions pulling prices lower overnight and on the day session Monday. Down days have been hard to come by in the month of March with fear of lower ending stocks on the March 9 USDA monthly report. Fear of not enough acres to show up planted on the March 30 planted acreage report and the battle with higher prices between grains to ...

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Grain Market Comment - Strong Cash

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Friday, March 16. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 836 t.m.t. of corn was sold last week, up from 455 the week prior and 743 on our solid four week average. No Chinese purchases but Mexico was in for 222 t.m.t. and in for the 15th consecutive week. Rumors of China in buying or set to buy, surfaced almost every day. There's talk China's corn reserves have been depleted and with the drought in number two world producer exporter Argentina ,most feel China need to purchase US corn sooner than later. ...

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Grains Analysis - One Down, One To Go

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Tuesday, March 13. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Tuesday, March 13:

Well, our first crop report of the month came out. That leaves just one more, the March 30 planting intention report when farmer estimates show intended acres to be planted for corn, beans and spring wheat. Needless to say, new high prices for the month will be seen as the market trades the fear we won't plant enough acres of corn to build reserves and bean ...

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Grains Analysis - Export Sales

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Thursday, March 8. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Thursday, March 8:

Today’s weekly export sales report was a mixed bag. Wheat showed 446 thousand metric tons were sold last week for shipment prior to June 1. That was off 8% from the week prior and below the 4-week average of 560. With ending stocks over 8 million bushels at a level that is double what we once considered tight stocks, only supply-side fundamentals [not ...

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The Grain Report - Profit Taking

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Wednesday, March 7. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
Monday saw classic two-sided trade prior the release of Friday's big USDA monthly crop report. Corn, beans, and wheat saw measurable buying prior the beginning of the new month with all three making new highs for March Monday before profit-taking set in with more profit-taking on Tuesday’s opening. As we narrow into the final days prior the reports release, we see everyone offsetting or balancing the risk prior the report with more two-sided trade. Longs fat with profits sell the rallies, ...

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Grains Analysis - Split Month

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Friday, March 2. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Friday, March 2:

It's the beginning of a new month, but the end of the week. Traders are more concerned with the pre-weekend risk thinking, though, and it’s leading to a more subdued 2-sided trading on this Friday. When we enter Monday, the psychology will turn to new month thinking instead, and the focus will be on re-establishing a foothold on longer-term positioning.
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Grain Analysis - A Break To Buy

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Tuesday, February 28. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Tuesday, Feb. 28:

Monday brought wide swings as corn and wheat were down $.09 in early trade, pricing in bearish outside market action. Then, the market turned up and gained $.04 to $.12, with soybeans up $.15. The factors that drove prices back to the plus side were demand and bullish thinking/positioning ahead of the upcoming March crop report.

There were no ...

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Grains Analysis - Thursday Update

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Thursday, February 23. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Thursday, Feb. 23:

The AG forum conference released some numbers for grain traders to think about. They put corn acres at 94 million acres to be planted, up from 91 last year and in line with pre-report expectations. This had new crop December futures down 6 cents after today’s opening. I look for the March 30 planted acreage intention report by the USDA to come in under ...

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Grains Analysis - Short Week

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Wednesday, February 22. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Wednesday, Feb. 22:

This week’s opening (Tuesday, due to the holiday Monday) brought opening selling for the grains, with corn and wheat down hard and beans up in the latter part of the session. Rain that had been forecast for South America over the weekend was more than ample.

Central Argentina saw 60% coverage of up to 3 inches. The rain was lighter in ...

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Grains Analysis - Pre- Holiday Notes

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Saturday, February 18. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Thursday, Feb. 16:

Thursday's weekly export sales report was mixed. Soybean sales last week were 436 thousand metric tons, off 28% from the week prior with China getting 206 of the total versus 338 the week before.

China stepped back a little last week as they prepared for their trade visit to Washington this week and a more aggressive buying pattern. Through ...

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From Weather To Government Meetings: New Highs In Soybeans Monday

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Wednesday, February 15. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
On Monday’s USDA Weekly Export Inspections Report, wheat inspected to be exported this week totaled 16.5 million bushels, one million over our 4-week average. Corn was 29 million bushels, equal to our strong 4-week average and over a year ago by two million bushels, pushing yearly inspections to 740 million bushels.

We have steadily been catching up on exports with buyers considering drought in Mexico and Argentina. Look for sales to continue to exceed prior year levels.

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Grains Analysis - Too Many Hats

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Friday, February 10. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Thursday, Feb. 9:

Thursday saw every hat to trade on thrown into the ring. A USDA crop report, outside market influence, weather reports, and weekly export inspections, and the market traded every factor whether bullish or bearish.

When the smoke cleared, grains ended lower as we suggested prior to USDA’s report, as funds banked valuable profits made from ...

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Grain Analysis - Month-End Analysis

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Thursday, January 26. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Thursday, Jan. 26:

Thursday's weekly export sales report put corn sales a week ago at 958 thousand metric tons, making it a second consecutive strong week. Drought-stricken Mexico was in for 264 thousand in the eighth consecutive week of heavy Mexican purchases. Their drought is now considered the worst since records have been kept.

This will lend to talk ahead ...

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Less Rain

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Wednesday, January 25. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Tuesday, Jan. 24:

When we went home Friday, the forecast called for good rains forecasted over all of Argentina and southern Brazil. It turned out rains missed many of the areas and were half or less of what was expected.

We have opened higher at the start of six consecutive weeks now.

The La Niña weather pattern that's led to the drought-like ...

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Weather Trading

Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Friday, January 20. 2012 • Category: Rohstoffe
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Friday, Jan. 20:

Tuesday saw traders buying grains on the drier than expected weekend rains in South America, and dry weather into Thursday. Then traders turned and sold grains Wednesday as the coming weekend forecast called for another system of rain to enter South America. As always, this time of year, when our grains are locked up on the farm and the wheat is dormant, we ...

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