Welcome To September!
Posted by Phil Flynn I PFG Best Research • Friday, September 3. 2010 • Category: Rohstoffe
The Energy Report for Friday, September 3, 2010
Forget all of that economic doom and gloom because that was so August! September has come and hope is rising. Maybe, just maybe, things were not as bad as it seemed and maybe having total petroleum supplies at all time highs really does not matter. You see in a world where the Fed always has your back it might be wise to not get to pessimistic. Remember the Fed has the printing press and they have promised to use it if needed. Of course oil had other scares to worry about.
An explosion and fire on a Mariner Energy platform had traders saying oh no here we go again. Mainer Energy, a former unit of Enron and now in the process of being bought by Apache, has had it shares of accidents racking up more than 12 in the last four years. Anytime you are dealing with oil and gas it is a potential dangerous situation and accidents are going to happen. The fears that this accident would give the critics of off shore drilling more ammunition to keep the drilling moratorium going perhaps in a small way helped support prices. What is really working in the favor of the drilling moratorium is ample supply. If supplies were tighter like they were just a few years ago the drilling moratorium might be adding 5 to 10 dollars to a barrel of oil.
Now in the short term the price impact is negligible, yet if we saw retail prices for gasoline, natural gas and heating oil rising Americans would scream loud enough to lift the ban. The impact is not being felt now but will be felt in the future especially in our economy ever comes back.
The other worry is the weather. This week traders tried to guess what impact the rash of tropical waves and hurricanes might have on price. So far Hurricane Earl is not as bad as it could have been yet there are more storms looming. The AFP reported that, “Hurricane Earl pounded North Carolina on Friday as it sped up the U.S. East Coast, threatening dangerous waves and riptides across the eastern seaboard. Coastal residents huddled at home after tens of thousands fled the strongest Atlantic storm of 2010.” Does not sound like a lot of driving going on.
The AFP further says that it was expected to produce major swells along much of the eastern seaboard during the day, send waters surging up to four feet (1.2 meters) and dump up to five inches (13 centimeters) of rain. A huge swath of the East Coast was due for a lashing by tropical storm and hurricane force winds. Although Earl was earlier downgraded to a Category 2 hurricane, it was set to bring destructive winds and heavy rains to North Carolina's coast before moving north, reaching Canada's Nova Scotia by early Saturday. Weather watchers said Earl was the most powerful hurricane to threaten the U.S. Northeast and New England since 1991, when Hurricane Bob caused deadly damage. For vacationers the forecast track ended plans for a final few care-free days at the beach before the end of summer for the Labor Day holiday weekend that draws millions to East Coast beaches.” Millions will stay home dramatically lowering the demand for gasoline. Earl and Fiona have hurt demand but the Atlantic is still very active.
Make sure you keep up with the latest by watching The Fox Business Network and me every day! You can also call me at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@pfgbest.com. Make sure you are getting my daily trade updates as well! Have a great holiday.
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst
800-935-6487
312-563-8344
pflynn@pfgbest.com
Phil Flynn is Energy Analyst and General Market Analyst with PFGBEST (www.pfgbest.com). Phil is one of the world’s leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil’s market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, traders and global media.
Because he has been available to media around the clock, even during some of the most turbulent market periods in history, and because he has built a solid reputation for accuracy in his market analysis and forecasts, through thousands of interviews and broadcast appearances for more than a decade, Phil Flynn has become a headline-making name even as he continues to provide expert advice and customer care to his proprietary trading account clients.
Media highlights include: CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, ABC, CBS with Katie Couric, NBC’s “Today Show” and “Nightly News with Tom Brokaw”, FOX’s “O’Reilly Factor”, PBS’s “The Newshour with Jim Lehrer” and “Nightly Business Report”, MSNBC’s “The News with Brian Williams”, Wall Street Journal Report, The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Investor’s Business Daily, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Associated Press, The Toronto Globe & Mail, Houston Chronicle, Futures Magazine, National Public Radio’s Marketplace, a chat with the President of the United States, and many more venues.
You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pfgbest.com.
PFGBEST is among the largest non-clearing U.S. Futures Commission Merchants, with customers, affiliates and brokerage offices in more than 80 countries. The company is a leader in sustainable investing through diversified products including managed funds, futures, forex, options, full-service and discount brokerage, trader education, market research, and direct online futures trading through its BESTDirect™ platform, and numerous other platforms and applications.
Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
Forget all of that economic doom and gloom because that was so August! September has come and hope is rising. Maybe, just maybe, things were not as bad as it seemed and maybe having total petroleum supplies at all time highs really does not matter. You see in a world where the Fed always has your back it might be wise to not get to pessimistic. Remember the Fed has the printing press and they have promised to use it if needed. Of course oil had other scares to worry about.
An explosion and fire on a Mariner Energy platform had traders saying oh no here we go again. Mainer Energy, a former unit of Enron and now in the process of being bought by Apache, has had it shares of accidents racking up more than 12 in the last four years. Anytime you are dealing with oil and gas it is a potential dangerous situation and accidents are going to happen. The fears that this accident would give the critics of off shore drilling more ammunition to keep the drilling moratorium going perhaps in a small way helped support prices. What is really working in the favor of the drilling moratorium is ample supply. If supplies were tighter like they were just a few years ago the drilling moratorium might be adding 5 to 10 dollars to a barrel of oil.
Now in the short term the price impact is negligible, yet if we saw retail prices for gasoline, natural gas and heating oil rising Americans would scream loud enough to lift the ban. The impact is not being felt now but will be felt in the future especially in our economy ever comes back.
The other worry is the weather. This week traders tried to guess what impact the rash of tropical waves and hurricanes might have on price. So far Hurricane Earl is not as bad as it could have been yet there are more storms looming. The AFP reported that, “Hurricane Earl pounded North Carolina on Friday as it sped up the U.S. East Coast, threatening dangerous waves and riptides across the eastern seaboard. Coastal residents huddled at home after tens of thousands fled the strongest Atlantic storm of 2010.” Does not sound like a lot of driving going on.
The AFP further says that it was expected to produce major swells along much of the eastern seaboard during the day, send waters surging up to four feet (1.2 meters) and dump up to five inches (13 centimeters) of rain. A huge swath of the East Coast was due for a lashing by tropical storm and hurricane force winds. Although Earl was earlier downgraded to a Category 2 hurricane, it was set to bring destructive winds and heavy rains to North Carolina's coast before moving north, reaching Canada's Nova Scotia by early Saturday. Weather watchers said Earl was the most powerful hurricane to threaten the U.S. Northeast and New England since 1991, when Hurricane Bob caused deadly damage. For vacationers the forecast track ended plans for a final few care-free days at the beach before the end of summer for the Labor Day holiday weekend that draws millions to East Coast beaches.” Millions will stay home dramatically lowering the demand for gasoline. Earl and Fiona have hurt demand but the Atlantic is still very active.
Make sure you keep up with the latest by watching The Fox Business Network and me every day! You can also call me at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@pfgbest.com. Make sure you are getting my daily trade updates as well! Have a great holiday.
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst
800-935-6487
312-563-8344
pflynn@pfgbest.com
Phil Flynn is Energy Analyst and General Market Analyst with PFGBEST (www.pfgbest.com). Phil is one of the world’s leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil’s market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, traders and global media.
Because he has been available to media around the clock, even during some of the most turbulent market periods in history, and because he has built a solid reputation for accuracy in his market analysis and forecasts, through thousands of interviews and broadcast appearances for more than a decade, Phil Flynn has become a headline-making name even as he continues to provide expert advice and customer care to his proprietary trading account clients.
Media highlights include: CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, ABC, CBS with Katie Couric, NBC’s “Today Show” and “Nightly News with Tom Brokaw”, FOX’s “O’Reilly Factor”, PBS’s “The Newshour with Jim Lehrer” and “Nightly Business Report”, MSNBC’s “The News with Brian Williams”, Wall Street Journal Report, The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Investor’s Business Daily, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Associated Press, The Toronto Globe & Mail, Houston Chronicle, Futures Magazine, National Public Radio’s Marketplace, a chat with the President of the United States, and many more venues.
You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pfgbest.com.
PFGBEST is among the largest non-clearing U.S. Futures Commission Merchants, with customers, affiliates and brokerage offices in more than 80 countries. The company is a leader in sustainable investing through diversified products including managed funds, futures, forex, options, full-service and discount brokerage, trader education, market research, and direct online futures trading through its BESTDirect™ platform, and numerous other platforms and applications.
Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
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