Weather neutral
Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Tuesday, July 27. 2010 • Category: Rohstoffe
Monday’s first report came on the demand side with our weekly export inspection reports. Wheat showed 15.4 million bushels of wheat was inspected for near term export, down from 23.5 the week prior and four week average of 17.5 m.b. The decline is as simple as importers see record U.S. stocks at 950 m.b. with last week’s high finishing off a 1.60 four week rally. Importers took a safe bet to back off and look for a break. But, the rally was not about demand rather than trend following funds getting out of their record short position that was 77 thousand short four weeks ago and entering this week short 17 thousand contracts. Unless production problems in overseas markets continue , leading to funds building a long position, we should have to expect that short covering is limited to the remaining 17 thousand contracts. That limits the upside as they can cover it on breaks. Corn inspections were 42.4 m.b. versus 40.7 the week prior and four week average of 36 m.b. We closed about 12 cents lower on the week so importers into Asia began to bargain book corn especially with the weaker dollar and stronger yen. We may see demand slow before harvest but expect this year harvest to be aggressively sought by ethanol producers, feeders and exporters as its finally sunk in were on a record export demand pace, that will continue into 2011. Soybean inspections were 6.5 m.b. versus 9.6 the week prior but over our four week average of 5 m.b.
China was in for beans Friday and another 226 t.m.t. Monday. So, the record demand pace continues for near and long term shipments. Demand takes over as a primary pricing source after harvest , while weather remains 90% of the market pricing until the crops are made. After the close Monday our crop condition reports came out adjusting yield potentials from last week’s weather. Spring wheat condition came in at 83% in good to excellent condition up 1% from the weeks prior. Not much you can say. Were about ready for some early harvest about 2 weeks from now. It’s unlikely we can damage the crop from here on. Corn came in unchanged on the week at 72% G-E condition and 2% better than a year ago this time. Only 16% of the crop is left to enter its key yield development time. The eastern grain belt continues with the lowest rating with an average of 63% versus the 72 national averages. The western grain belt key states average are from 70% in Iowa to 85 in Nebraska. Soybean conditions also came in unchanged at 67% G-E condition and equal a year ago this time. Lowest ratings were in the eastern grain belt, averaging 62% with the western belt wide with Iowa 71% and Nebraska 81%.
As broad and volatile last week’s weather was, from hot and dry in the southern delta, to hot with light rain in the eastern grain belt to flooding in Iowa, this will leave traders scratching their heads as to why we balanced out on the ratings.WXRISK.COM the weather site sees above to much above normal temperatures across the Midwest with normal to above normal rainfall for the next 6 to 14 days or until the forecast changes. These changes happen quickly. This should have you selling rallies until further weather notice changes. Charts rule now. September corn futures have key support at 3.60. A close under and 3.40 is next stop. 3.82 is resistance with a close over making 3.96 next stop. November beans have support at 9.62 with a close under setting up 9.50 next. Resistance is 9.88 with a close over setting 10.08 as next hit. September wheat needs to hold 5.72 or 5.54 is next while a close over 6.04 sets up 6.40.
Tim Hannagan
PFGBEST Research Team
800.563.9510
thannagan@pfgbest.com
www.pfgbest.com
About the Author:
Tim Hannagan joined PFGBEST from Alaron Trading Corp., with more than 30 years of experience as a futures and options trader for retail accounts. As a Senior Grain Analyst, Mr. Hannagan has helped not only his investor clients but also media, grain producers and corporate executives wishing to sense, identify and capture the slightest moves in the grain futures and options markets. His concise and analytical research reports appear every trading day and can be accessed at www.pfgbest.com/research.
For 10 years, prior to joining Alaron, Hannagan was Vice President and Senior Market Analyst for Harvey Commodities. During that period, he refined his trading methodology and developed a centralized focus on individual trading clients. It was here that he developed and tested the technical reversal system he created to enter and exit all trades.
Mr. Hannagan is a nationally recognized expert on grain markets and his opinions frequently appear in The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Futures Magazine, Investor’s Business Daily and other periodicals as well as on international newswire services and online blogs and commodity news services. He also has an impressive list of broadcast appearances.
In December2007, Tim released his 2008 grains yearly outlook, leading the industry by accurately predicting the historic high price rally in grains. In December 2008, Tim released his 2009 grains yearly outlook. This was when the U. S. and world economies were in a collapse. He accurately called the low of the grain movement and predicted the sharp rallies into the spring/summer planting and growing season.
PFGBEST is among the largest non-clearing U.S. Futures Commission Merchants, with customers, affiliates and brokerage offices in more than 80 countries. The company is a leader in sustainable investing through diversified products including managed funds, futures, forex, options, full-service and discount brokerage, trader education, market research, and direct online futures trading through its BESTDirect™ platform, and numerous other platforms and applications.
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
China was in for beans Friday and another 226 t.m.t. Monday. So, the record demand pace continues for near and long term shipments. Demand takes over as a primary pricing source after harvest , while weather remains 90% of the market pricing until the crops are made. After the close Monday our crop condition reports came out adjusting yield potentials from last week’s weather. Spring wheat condition came in at 83% in good to excellent condition up 1% from the weeks prior. Not much you can say. Were about ready for some early harvest about 2 weeks from now. It’s unlikely we can damage the crop from here on. Corn came in unchanged on the week at 72% G-E condition and 2% better than a year ago this time. Only 16% of the crop is left to enter its key yield development time. The eastern grain belt continues with the lowest rating with an average of 63% versus the 72 national averages. The western grain belt key states average are from 70% in Iowa to 85 in Nebraska. Soybean conditions also came in unchanged at 67% G-E condition and equal a year ago this time. Lowest ratings were in the eastern grain belt, averaging 62% with the western belt wide with Iowa 71% and Nebraska 81%.
As broad and volatile last week’s weather was, from hot and dry in the southern delta, to hot with light rain in the eastern grain belt to flooding in Iowa, this will leave traders scratching their heads as to why we balanced out on the ratings.WXRISK.COM the weather site sees above to much above normal temperatures across the Midwest with normal to above normal rainfall for the next 6 to 14 days or until the forecast changes. These changes happen quickly. This should have you selling rallies until further weather notice changes. Charts rule now. September corn futures have key support at 3.60. A close under and 3.40 is next stop. 3.82 is resistance with a close over making 3.96 next stop. November beans have support at 9.62 with a close under setting up 9.50 next. Resistance is 9.88 with a close over setting 10.08 as next hit. September wheat needs to hold 5.72 or 5.54 is next while a close over 6.04 sets up 6.40.
Tim Hannagan
PFGBEST Research Team
800.563.9510
thannagan@pfgbest.com
www.pfgbest.com
About the Author:
Tim Hannagan joined PFGBEST from Alaron Trading Corp., with more than 30 years of experience as a futures and options trader for retail accounts. As a Senior Grain Analyst, Mr. Hannagan has helped not only his investor clients but also media, grain producers and corporate executives wishing to sense, identify and capture the slightest moves in the grain futures and options markets. His concise and analytical research reports appear every trading day and can be accessed at www.pfgbest.com/research.
For 10 years, prior to joining Alaron, Hannagan was Vice President and Senior Market Analyst for Harvey Commodities. During that period, he refined his trading methodology and developed a centralized focus on individual trading clients. It was here that he developed and tested the technical reversal system he created to enter and exit all trades.
Mr. Hannagan is a nationally recognized expert on grain markets and his opinions frequently appear in The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Futures Magazine, Investor’s Business Daily and other periodicals as well as on international newswire services and online blogs and commodity news services. He also has an impressive list of broadcast appearances.
In December2007, Tim released his 2008 grains yearly outlook, leading the industry by accurately predicting the historic high price rally in grains. In December 2008, Tim released his 2009 grains yearly outlook. This was when the U. S. and world economies were in a collapse. He accurately called the low of the grain movement and predicted the sharp rallies into the spring/summer planting and growing season.
PFGBEST is among the largest non-clearing U.S. Futures Commission Merchants, with customers, affiliates and brokerage offices in more than 80 countries. The company is a leader in sustainable investing through diversified products including managed funds, futures, forex, options, full-service and discount brokerage, trader education, market research, and direct online futures trading through its BESTDirect™ platform, and numerous other platforms and applications.
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
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