Ben What A Bummer!
Posted by Phil Flynn I PFG Best Research • Thursday, July 22. 2010 • Category: Rohstoffe
The Energy Report for Thursday, July 22, 2010
Bummer Bernanke - Ben what a bummer! Way to bring us all down Ben. Dude, we were feeling happy in this little bubble world of earnings driven economic expectations and you go and have to ruin our little economic recovery fantasy world bliss. Why did you have to tell us the truth man and ruin the buzz?
That you and most of your friends at the Fed saw the risks to growth as weighted to the downside. Why tell us that the economic expansion is only proceeding at a moderate pace and only because it is being supported by stimulative monetary and fiscal policies. We may be high but to some it felt like we were doing it on our own. Why tell us that the housing market remains weak, with the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses weighing on home prices and construction? And on top of that, you remind us that this is an important drag on household spending. Then you have to bring up that darn slow recovery in the labor market and the attendant uncertainty about job prospects. Did you have to go and say that after two years of job losses, private payrolls expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially?
Or that in all likelihood it is going to take a significant amount of time to restore the nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009. Or tell us that nearly half of the unemployed have been out of work for longer than six months. Or say that long-term unemployment not only imposes exceptional near-term hardships on workers and their families, it also erodes skills and may have long-lasting effects on workers’ employment and earnings prospects. Man, you had better do something to get us feeling better or at least send us into oblivion again.
I mean even talking about the potential for more stimulation later if we get feeling really bad does little to bring back my buzz today. And even the talk of more stimulus has many wondering that if things are still so weak then why should we make a commitment to expand our business? Because Ben as you said yesterday, many banks continue to have a large volume of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight. With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank loans outstanding have continued to contract. Small businesses, which depend importantly on bank credit, have been particularly hard hit. Not to mention what this downer kind of talk can do to oil demand expectations. This less than bright outlook by the Fed Chairman once again can get the oil market to focus on over supply.
Not even the storm threat down in the Gulf at this point seems to be taking our mind off of that glut. Oh sure, we downgraded the storm threat expectations but it is already having some impact on BP clean up operations. The National Hurricane Center now says we have two tropical waves down south, one that is in the Gulf of Mexico and one that is headed that way. At this point they both have a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. The weak economic conditions are one reason we saw a bearish Energy Information Agency report. The most bearish aspect was the out of season distillate fuel inventories that increased by 3.9 million barrels. Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.6 million barrels per and while up by 9.0 percent from the depths of despair a year ago, is not nearly enough to cut into our near record amount of supply. The EIA sais that overall refinery inputs came in at 15.5 million barrels per day during the week en and that refineries operated at 91.5 percent of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.5 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 10.0 million barrels per day last week, up by 696 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 9.5 million barrels per day, 203 thousand barrels per day above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 174 thousand barrels per day last week. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 353.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. The range in oil continues. We are higher then we are lower and then we are higher again.
Make sure you are getting my buy and sell points for oil and all the major markets. Just call me at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@pfgbest.com to open your account. Also sign up for my webinar today! And as always check out the Fox Business Network and experience business in true high definition and where you can see me every day! Why waste all of those pixels or whatever those high def things are that you paid for.
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst
800-935-6487
312-563-8344
pflynn@pfgbest.com
Phil Flynn is Energy Analyst and General Market Analyst with PFGBEST (www.pfgbest.com). Phil is one of the world’s leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil’s market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, traders and global media.
Because he has been available to media around the clock, even during some of the most turbulent market periods in history, and because he has built a solid reputation for accuracy in his market analysis and forecasts, through thousands of interviews and broadcast appearances for more than a decade, Phil Flynn has become a headline-making name even as he continues to provide expert advice and customer care to his proprietary trading account clients.
Media highlights include: CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, ABC, CBS with Katie Couric, NBC’s “Today Show” and “Nightly News with Tom Brokaw”, FOX’s “O’Reilly Factor”, PBS’s “The Newshour with Jim Lehrer” and “Nightly Business Report”, MSNBC’s “The News with Brian Williams”, Wall Street Journal Report, The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Investor’s Business Daily, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Associated Press, The Toronto Globe & Mail, Houston Chronicle, Futures Magazine, National Public Radio’s Marketplace, a chat with the President of the United States, and many more venues.
You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pfgbest.com.
PFGBEST is among the largest non-clearing U.S. Futures Commission Merchants, with customers, affiliates and brokerage offices in more than 80 countries. The company is a leader in sustainable investing through diversified products including managed funds, futures, forex, options, full-service and discount brokerage, trader education, market research, and direct online futures trading through its BESTDirect™ platform, and numerous other platforms and applications.
Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
Bummer Bernanke - Ben what a bummer! Way to bring us all down Ben. Dude, we were feeling happy in this little bubble world of earnings driven economic expectations and you go and have to ruin our little economic recovery fantasy world bliss. Why did you have to tell us the truth man and ruin the buzz?
That you and most of your friends at the Fed saw the risks to growth as weighted to the downside. Why tell us that the economic expansion is only proceeding at a moderate pace and only because it is being supported by stimulative monetary and fiscal policies. We may be high but to some it felt like we were doing it on our own. Why tell us that the housing market remains weak, with the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses weighing on home prices and construction? And on top of that, you remind us that this is an important drag on household spending. Then you have to bring up that darn slow recovery in the labor market and the attendant uncertainty about job prospects. Did you have to go and say that after two years of job losses, private payrolls expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially?
Or that in all likelihood it is going to take a significant amount of time to restore the nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009. Or tell us that nearly half of the unemployed have been out of work for longer than six months. Or say that long-term unemployment not only imposes exceptional near-term hardships on workers and their families, it also erodes skills and may have long-lasting effects on workers’ employment and earnings prospects. Man, you had better do something to get us feeling better or at least send us into oblivion again.
I mean even talking about the potential for more stimulation later if we get feeling really bad does little to bring back my buzz today. And even the talk of more stimulus has many wondering that if things are still so weak then why should we make a commitment to expand our business? Because Ben as you said yesterday, many banks continue to have a large volume of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight. With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank loans outstanding have continued to contract. Small businesses, which depend importantly on bank credit, have been particularly hard hit. Not to mention what this downer kind of talk can do to oil demand expectations. This less than bright outlook by the Fed Chairman once again can get the oil market to focus on over supply.
Not even the storm threat down in the Gulf at this point seems to be taking our mind off of that glut. Oh sure, we downgraded the storm threat expectations but it is already having some impact on BP clean up operations. The National Hurricane Center now says we have two tropical waves down south, one that is in the Gulf of Mexico and one that is headed that way. At this point they both have a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. The weak economic conditions are one reason we saw a bearish Energy Information Agency report. The most bearish aspect was the out of season distillate fuel inventories that increased by 3.9 million barrels. Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.6 million barrels per and while up by 9.0 percent from the depths of despair a year ago, is not nearly enough to cut into our near record amount of supply. The EIA sais that overall refinery inputs came in at 15.5 million barrels per day during the week en and that refineries operated at 91.5 percent of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.5 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 10.0 million barrels per day last week, up by 696 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 9.5 million barrels per day, 203 thousand barrels per day above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 174 thousand barrels per day last week. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 353.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. The range in oil continues. We are higher then we are lower and then we are higher again.
Make sure you are getting my buy and sell points for oil and all the major markets. Just call me at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@pfgbest.com to open your account. Also sign up for my webinar today! And as always check out the Fox Business Network and experience business in true high definition and where you can see me every day! Why waste all of those pixels or whatever those high def things are that you paid for.
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst
800-935-6487
312-563-8344
pflynn@pfgbest.com
Phil Flynn is Energy Analyst and General Market Analyst with PFGBEST (www.pfgbest.com). Phil is one of the world’s leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil’s market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, traders and global media.
Because he has been available to media around the clock, even during some of the most turbulent market periods in history, and because he has built a solid reputation for accuracy in his market analysis and forecasts, through thousands of interviews and broadcast appearances for more than a decade, Phil Flynn has become a headline-making name even as he continues to provide expert advice and customer care to his proprietary trading account clients.
Media highlights include: CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, ABC, CBS with Katie Couric, NBC’s “Today Show” and “Nightly News with Tom Brokaw”, FOX’s “O’Reilly Factor”, PBS’s “The Newshour with Jim Lehrer” and “Nightly Business Report”, MSNBC’s “The News with Brian Williams”, Wall Street Journal Report, The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Investor’s Business Daily, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Associated Press, The Toronto Globe & Mail, Houston Chronicle, Futures Magazine, National Public Radio’s Marketplace, a chat with the President of the United States, and many more venues.
You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pfgbest.com.
PFGBEST is among the largest non-clearing U.S. Futures Commission Merchants, with customers, affiliates and brokerage offices in more than 80 countries. The company is a leader in sustainable investing through diversified products including managed funds, futures, forex, options, full-service and discount brokerage, trader education, market research, and direct online futures trading through its BESTDirect™ platform, and numerous other platforms and applications.
Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
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