When Irish Eyes Are Crying
Posted by Phil Flynn I PFG Best Research • Monday, July 19. 2010 • Category: Rohstoffe
The Energy Report for Monday, July 19, 2010
A downgrade of Irish debt, an oil spill in China and two storm systems down in the Atlantic that bear watching has oil being pulled in different directions. The tug and pull between bearish and bullish forces has oil bouncing in both directions. Now with a whole plate of earnings ahead of us, the dollar and the stock market will be our guide unless of course things get nasty weather wise down south. Overnight Moody's Investors Service cut Ireland's sovereign debt rating to Aa2 from Aa1because of what they say is the government's "gradual but significant loss of financial strength." Moody says that Ireland’s weakening debt affordability, lower economic growth prospects due to the severe downturn in the banking and real estate sectors, as well as liabilities from the bailout of the banking sector all contributed to the downgrade. At first oil broke on this news as it was feared that this downgrade might hit Europe and what is perceived as Euro Zone stability. Yet oil came back as Moody's at the same time lifted the ratings outlook on Irish government debt to stable from negative and said that the risks are now evenly balanced at the new lower rating standard. Besides we all knew that Ireland was in danger of a downgrade in the first place. Don’t cry over spilled milk but I guess you can cry over spilled oil.
The latest oil spill is in China. Dow Jones reports that the Dalian Port Company has closed the port for clean-up operations after an oil pipeline explosion at its Xingang berths Friday caused what could be the largest oil spill in Chinese waters, an individual in the shipping industry said. The clean-up could take eight to ten days, the Beijing-based individual told Dow Jones Newswires. However, a shipping agent in Singapore heard that the port could be re-opened in four-five days. "It could worsen port congestion and bring shipping rates up again," the person in Beijing said. In the meantime, port authorities are likely to divert seaborne carriers with cargoes of commodities including oil, iron ore and grains, to neighboring northern ports like Caofeidian and Qinhuangdao, he said.
Two storms brewing in the Atlantic will keep the market watching the weather. Two tropical waves, both with about a 20% chance of becoming a hurricane, may keep some of the aggressive bears at bay. Climate at a price Bloomberg News reports that “Proposed Senate legislation to limit greenhouse gases from power plants, refineries and factories would cut U.S. gross domestic product by $452 billion, or 0.2 percent, between 2013 and 2035, the Energy Information Agency. A cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gases, “increases the cost of using energy, which cuts real economic output, reduces purchasing power, and lowers aggregate demand for goods and services,” the agency said in a report on legislation released May 12 by Senators John Kerry and Joseph Lieberman. The legislation, which aims to cut the greenhouse gases scientists have linked to global warming 17 percent from the 2005 level by 2020, would cost the average household $206 a year, the EIA said in the report. Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat, and Lieberman, a Connecticut Independent, are working on a scaled-back proposal that targets pollution from power plants. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, has said he wants to include a carbon-cutting program for power plants in energy legislation to be debated the week of July 26. Under cap-and-trade, the government issues a declining number of carbon dioxide allowances which companies can buy and sell. Allowances carrying the right to release one metric ton of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere would cost $32 each by 2020 under Kerry and Lieberman’s May proposal, called the American Power Act, the EIA said. Hang onto your wallets.
Conflicting news should keep oil in a range. Call for my latest buy and sell points on all major markets at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@pfgbest.com to open your account. And make sure you are watching the Fox Business Network where you can see me every day.
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst
800-935-6487
312-563-8344
pflynn@pfgbest.com
Phil Flynn is Energy Analyst and General Market Analyst with PFGBEST (www.pfgbest.com). Phil is one of the world’s leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil’s market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, traders and global media.
Because he has been available to media around the clock, even during some of the most turbulent market periods in history, and because he has built a solid reputation for accuracy in his market analysis and forecasts, through thousands of interviews and broadcast appearances for more than a decade, Phil Flynn has become a headline-making name even as he continues to provide expert advice and customer care to his proprietary trading account clients.
Media highlights include: CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, ABC, CBS with Katie Couric, NBC’s “Today Show” and “Nightly News with Tom Brokaw”, FOX’s “O’Reilly Factor”, PBS’s “The Newshour with Jim Lehrer” and “Nightly Business Report”, MSNBC’s “The News with Brian Williams”, Wall Street Journal Report, The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Investor’s Business Daily, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Associated Press, The Toronto Globe & Mail, Houston Chronicle, Futures Magazine, National Public Radio’s Marketplace, a chat with the President of the United States, and many more venues.
You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pfgbest.com.
PFGBEST is among the largest non-clearing U.S. Futures Commission Merchants, with customers, affiliates and brokerage offices in more than 80 countries. The company is a leader in sustainable investing through diversified products including managed funds, futures, forex, options, full-service and discount brokerage, trader education, market research, and direct online futures trading through its BESTDirect™ platform, and numerous other platforms and applications.
Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
A downgrade of Irish debt, an oil spill in China and two storm systems down in the Atlantic that bear watching has oil being pulled in different directions. The tug and pull between bearish and bullish forces has oil bouncing in both directions. Now with a whole plate of earnings ahead of us, the dollar and the stock market will be our guide unless of course things get nasty weather wise down south. Overnight Moody's Investors Service cut Ireland's sovereign debt rating to Aa2 from Aa1because of what they say is the government's "gradual but significant loss of financial strength." Moody says that Ireland’s weakening debt affordability, lower economic growth prospects due to the severe downturn in the banking and real estate sectors, as well as liabilities from the bailout of the banking sector all contributed to the downgrade. At first oil broke on this news as it was feared that this downgrade might hit Europe and what is perceived as Euro Zone stability. Yet oil came back as Moody's at the same time lifted the ratings outlook on Irish government debt to stable from negative and said that the risks are now evenly balanced at the new lower rating standard. Besides we all knew that Ireland was in danger of a downgrade in the first place. Don’t cry over spilled milk but I guess you can cry over spilled oil.
The latest oil spill is in China. Dow Jones reports that the Dalian Port Company has closed the port for clean-up operations after an oil pipeline explosion at its Xingang berths Friday caused what could be the largest oil spill in Chinese waters, an individual in the shipping industry said. The clean-up could take eight to ten days, the Beijing-based individual told Dow Jones Newswires. However, a shipping agent in Singapore heard that the port could be re-opened in four-five days. "It could worsen port congestion and bring shipping rates up again," the person in Beijing said. In the meantime, port authorities are likely to divert seaborne carriers with cargoes of commodities including oil, iron ore and grains, to neighboring northern ports like Caofeidian and Qinhuangdao, he said.
Two storms brewing in the Atlantic will keep the market watching the weather. Two tropical waves, both with about a 20% chance of becoming a hurricane, may keep some of the aggressive bears at bay. Climate at a price Bloomberg News reports that “Proposed Senate legislation to limit greenhouse gases from power plants, refineries and factories would cut U.S. gross domestic product by $452 billion, or 0.2 percent, between 2013 and 2035, the Energy Information Agency. A cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gases, “increases the cost of using energy, which cuts real economic output, reduces purchasing power, and lowers aggregate demand for goods and services,” the agency said in a report on legislation released May 12 by Senators John Kerry and Joseph Lieberman. The legislation, which aims to cut the greenhouse gases scientists have linked to global warming 17 percent from the 2005 level by 2020, would cost the average household $206 a year, the EIA said in the report. Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat, and Lieberman, a Connecticut Independent, are working on a scaled-back proposal that targets pollution from power plants. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, has said he wants to include a carbon-cutting program for power plants in energy legislation to be debated the week of July 26. Under cap-and-trade, the government issues a declining number of carbon dioxide allowances which companies can buy and sell. Allowances carrying the right to release one metric ton of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere would cost $32 each by 2020 under Kerry and Lieberman’s May proposal, called the American Power Act, the EIA said. Hang onto your wallets.
Conflicting news should keep oil in a range. Call for my latest buy and sell points on all major markets at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@pfgbest.com to open your account. And make sure you are watching the Fox Business Network where you can see me every day.
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst
800-935-6487
312-563-8344
pflynn@pfgbest.com
Phil Flynn is Energy Analyst and General Market Analyst with PFGBEST (www.pfgbest.com). Phil is one of the world’s leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil’s market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, traders and global media.
Because he has been available to media around the clock, even during some of the most turbulent market periods in history, and because he has built a solid reputation for accuracy in his market analysis and forecasts, through thousands of interviews and broadcast appearances for more than a decade, Phil Flynn has become a headline-making name even as he continues to provide expert advice and customer care to his proprietary trading account clients.
Media highlights include: CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, ABC, CBS with Katie Couric, NBC’s “Today Show” and “Nightly News with Tom Brokaw”, FOX’s “O’Reilly Factor”, PBS’s “The Newshour with Jim Lehrer” and “Nightly Business Report”, MSNBC’s “The News with Brian Williams”, Wall Street Journal Report, The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Investor’s Business Daily, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Associated Press, The Toronto Globe & Mail, Houston Chronicle, Futures Magazine, National Public Radio’s Marketplace, a chat with the President of the United States, and many more venues.
You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pfgbest.com.
PFGBEST is among the largest non-clearing U.S. Futures Commission Merchants, with customers, affiliates and brokerage offices in more than 80 countries. The company is a leader in sustainable investing through diversified products including managed funds, futures, forex, options, full-service and discount brokerage, trader education, market research, and direct online futures trading through its BESTDirect™ platform, and numerous other platforms and applications.
Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
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