PRODUCTION NEXT
Posted by Tim Hannagan I PFG Best Research • Tuesday, March 9. 2010 • Category: Rohstoffe
Our weekly export inspection report came out Monday, almost ignored as the market gets ready for the Wednesday 7:30 am Central Time U.S.D.A. crop report.
Let’s review them anyway, so we are on top of demand fundamentals. Lowly wheat inspections were 20.4 million bushels inspected for near-term export versus 19 the week prior; 14 a year ago; and four-week average of 17.2 m.b. Too much wheat in inventory at 981 m.b. to move off weak demand numbers like that. Demand remains a neutral force for pricing.
Corn inspections were 34 m.b., versus 42 the week prior; 43 a year ago; and four-week average of 31 m.b. year-to-date inspections are up 20 m.b. I like the increase on the four-week average as we continue to see an increasing export market the last four weeks as Asian markets pick up buying as local neighbor China exits the export market. Keep in mind, exports are always down the week of U.S.D.A. reports as importers await fresh statistics for their near and long-term marketing strategies.
Bean inspections were 30.9 m.b., versus 40.4 the week prior; 31.0 a year ago; and four-week average of 38 m.b. Of the total, China was in for 23.6 m.b., the second highest weekly purchase of the last six weeks. It’s a good number on a crop report week.
Tomorrow, Wednesday, March 10, 2010, the U.S.D.A. releases its monthly crop report with final 2009 production numbers for corn and beans with adjustments to ending-stocks of all the grain markets.
On the PFGBest.com web site, you can pull up my last Friday’s report in which I give price projections that could occur for either a bullish or bearish report. But, unless there is a surprise outside the average and range of industry expectations, we look to come in Thursday, the day after, and say “what report?” The market will quickly forget it, refocus on outside markets for daily direction and begin to get ready for the big report on March 31, when the government survey of farmers tells us how many acres of each grain farmers intend to plant. The March 31 report is four times more important than Wednesday, March 10 report.
Tim Hannagan
PFGBEST Research Team
800.563.9510
thannagan@pfgbest.com
www.pfgbest.com
About the Author:
Tim Hannagan joined PFGBEST from Alaron Trading Corp., with more than 30 years of experience as a futures and options trader for retail accounts. As a Senior Grain Analyst, Mr. Hannagan has helped not only his investor clients but also media, grain producers and corporate executives wishing to sense, identify and capture the slightest moves in the grain futures and options markets. His concise and analytical research reports appear every trading day and can be accessed at www.pfgbest.com/research.
For 10 years, prior to joining Alaron, Hannagan was Vice President and Senior Market Analyst for Harvey Commodities. During that period, he refined his trading methodology and developed a centralized focus on individual trading clients. It was here that he developed and tested the technical reversal system he created to enter and exit all trades.
Mr. Hannagan is a nationally recognized expert on grain markets and his opinions frequently appear in The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Futures Magazine, Investor’s Business Daily and other periodicals as well as on international newswire services and online blogs and commodity news services. He also has an impressive list of broadcast appearances.
In December2007, Tim released his 2008 grains yearly outlook, leading the industry by accurately predicting the historic high price rally in grains. In December 2008, Tim released his 2009 grains yearly outlook. This was when the U. S. and world economies were in a collapse. He accurately called the low of the grain movement and predicted the sharp rallies into the spring/summer planting and growing season.
PFGBEST is among the largest non-clearing U.S. Futures Commission Merchants, with customers, affiliates and brokerage offices in more than 80 countries. The company is a leader in sustainable investing through diversified products including managed funds, futures, forex, options, full-service and discount brokerage, trader education, market research, and direct online futures trading through its BESTDirect™ platform, and numerous other platforms and applications.
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction
Let’s review them anyway, so we are on top of demand fundamentals. Lowly wheat inspections were 20.4 million bushels inspected for near-term export versus 19 the week prior; 14 a year ago; and four-week average of 17.2 m.b. Too much wheat in inventory at 981 m.b. to move off weak demand numbers like that. Demand remains a neutral force for pricing.
Corn inspections were 34 m.b., versus 42 the week prior; 43 a year ago; and four-week average of 31 m.b. year-to-date inspections are up 20 m.b. I like the increase on the four-week average as we continue to see an increasing export market the last four weeks as Asian markets pick up buying as local neighbor China exits the export market. Keep in mind, exports are always down the week of U.S.D.A. reports as importers await fresh statistics for their near and long-term marketing strategies.
Bean inspections were 30.9 m.b., versus 40.4 the week prior; 31.0 a year ago; and four-week average of 38 m.b. Of the total, China was in for 23.6 m.b., the second highest weekly purchase of the last six weeks. It’s a good number on a crop report week.
Tomorrow, Wednesday, March 10, 2010, the U.S.D.A. releases its monthly crop report with final 2009 production numbers for corn and beans with adjustments to ending-stocks of all the grain markets.
On the PFGBest.com web site, you can pull up my last Friday’s report in which I give price projections that could occur for either a bullish or bearish report. But, unless there is a surprise outside the average and range of industry expectations, we look to come in Thursday, the day after, and say “what report?” The market will quickly forget it, refocus on outside markets for daily direction and begin to get ready for the big report on March 31, when the government survey of farmers tells us how many acres of each grain farmers intend to plant. The March 31 report is four times more important than Wednesday, March 10 report.
Tim Hannagan
PFGBEST Research Team
800.563.9510
thannagan@pfgbest.com
www.pfgbest.com
About the Author:
Tim Hannagan joined PFGBEST from Alaron Trading Corp., with more than 30 years of experience as a futures and options trader for retail accounts. As a Senior Grain Analyst, Mr. Hannagan has helped not only his investor clients but also media, grain producers and corporate executives wishing to sense, identify and capture the slightest moves in the grain futures and options markets. His concise and analytical research reports appear every trading day and can be accessed at www.pfgbest.com/research.
For 10 years, prior to joining Alaron, Hannagan was Vice President and Senior Market Analyst for Harvey Commodities. During that period, he refined his trading methodology and developed a centralized focus on individual trading clients. It was here that he developed and tested the technical reversal system he created to enter and exit all trades.
Mr. Hannagan is a nationally recognized expert on grain markets and his opinions frequently appear in The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Futures Magazine, Investor’s Business Daily and other periodicals as well as on international newswire services and online blogs and commodity news services. He also has an impressive list of broadcast appearances.
In December2007, Tim released his 2008 grains yearly outlook, leading the industry by accurately predicting the historic high price rally in grains. In December 2008, Tim released his 2009 grains yearly outlook. This was when the U. S. and world economies were in a collapse. He accurately called the low of the grain movement and predicted the sharp rallies into the spring/summer planting and growing season.
PFGBEST is among the largest non-clearing U.S. Futures Commission Merchants, with customers, affiliates and brokerage offices in more than 80 countries. The company is a leader in sustainable investing through diversified products including managed funds, futures, forex, options, full-service and discount brokerage, trader education, market research, and direct online futures trading through its BESTDirect™ platform, and numerous other platforms and applications.
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction
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